Trade potentials of Iran and CIS

Document Type : Original Article


1 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Mazandaran, Iran.

2 PhD Candidate in Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Mazandaran, Iran

3 MSc in Economics, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran

4 Researcher in Economics, Provincial Government of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran



Given the growing importance of foreign trade, especially for Iran, as well as the importance of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) , the main purpose of this study is to examine Iran's trade potential with the CIS during the time period 2014-2018. In this regard, by using Allen and Drysdale indices, we have firstly examined Iran's trade similarity with CIS countries. Then, the competitiveness has been evaluated by calculating RCA and Lafay indicators. Finally, based on RCA, Lafay and total trade potential criteria, Iran's trade potential with CIS countries has been measured. According to the study, Iran's trade potential with the CIS region varies between $ 19 billion and $ 30 billion during the time period, and Iran has used only less than 10 percent of its existing trade potential with this region. During the period, Iran has a comparative advantage in more than 400 commoditiy groups, and according to the RCA index, the most important competitive commodity groups are generally primary goods, based on natural resources, agriculture and oil. Also, according to the Lafay Index for 2018, Iran has about 500 commodity groups with a positive index, and there is a significant balance in favor of this group of commodities. Given some significant capacities and advantages over the CIS, Iran should develop its trade with this region, taking into account national interests.